miércoles, 15 de abril de 2009

Athletic sortea incorrectamente las entradas para la final de copa

Ayer el Athletic Club de Bilbao realizó el sorteo para las entradas de la final de la copa del rey entre los socios inscritos.
La primera incorrección se dio al dar a conocer las bases del sorteo una vez iniciado el proceso de inscripción.
La segunda incorrección es más grave aún: los números existentes no tenían las mismas probabilidades de ser agraciadas en el sorteo.
La razón es que el sorteo se realizaba extrayendo 5 números y los agraciados son esos números y los siguientes hasta repartir las 14.800 entradas proporcionalmente en los 5 grupos (2.960 entradas para cada grupo).
Hasta aquí todo correcto. El error se ha dado al seleccionar los números: se extraían 5 bolas para los 5 dígitos.
Primero las decenas de millar: bolas numeradas 0, 1 y 2 (ya que sólo había 25.xxx inscripciones).
Luego las unidades de millar: bolas numeradas del 0 al 9. Aparentemente correcto. Pero si el número de las decenas de millar había sido un 2 y salía en la unidad de millar el 6, 7, 8 o 9, al no existir los número a partir del 26.000, lo que se hizo
fue sacar de nuevo el número de las unidades de millar, dando por bueno el 2 de las decenas de millar. Conclusión: los número a partir del 20.000 tenían más posibilidades que el resto de números.
De hecho, de los 5 números agraciados, 3 han sido mayores al 20.000.
Esto es un absoluto despropósito que cualquier persona con unos ligeros conocimientos de estadística puede comprobar.
Y lo peor no es esto, si no que se haya realizado adrede, como así parece, para beneficiar a ciertas personas...

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